By David M. Brown
Special to TNAZ

Two of these scenarios — the pandemic flu and the lunar exploration -- were simulated at ASU Decision Theater, while the bombing drill could be played out in the 8,000-square-foot complex on the Tempe campus.

In Decision Theater, Arizona State University staff, students, government leaders and businesspeople use advanced modeling and visualization tools to examine the consequences of behavior, decisions and policy making with real-time results.

"You have to be ready to practice. You can't just pick up a piano and play a concerto. You have to begin with your scales and work up to it," says Tim Lant, research director for Decision Theater and ASU's Decision Center for a Desert City.

In this laboratory, people prepare for emergencies and hone decision-making skills so mistakes can be fixed before real decision are needed.

As many as 25 participants sit within the central drum -- a 20-foot-diameter circular room with seven screens -- to test their individual and group decision-making skills using such tools as video-conferencing, 3D imagery, satellite television and cluster analysis.

The four-year-old Decision Theater is part of ASU's Global Institute of Sustainability. It is a component of university President Michael Crowe's vision for a 21st century research university that interacts closely with, and acts for, the community.

So far, the $6-million facility has been used in four policy areas: public health, urban growth, education and the environment.

"We do have knowledge on processes that will help people make better decisions," says George Basile, Decision Theater executive director and associate professor at the School of Sustainability. "We do have tools to reach back into in terms of analysis, modeling and visualizations."

He adds, "At the end of the day, we are here to help people make better decisions for a more sustainable future."

The Decision Theater hosted two Pandemic Influenza School Closure Exercises Feb. 12 and 19, focusing on how officials at the Arizona Department of Health Services and local school districts could best decide when to close and reopen schools. They also tested procedures to best reduce the overall effects of the crisis.

Thirty-four attendees representing Coconino, Maricopa and Pinal counties — representing 4.3 million people — took part in the exercises, which simulated three events based on World Health Organization threat levels: an imminent threat, the first outbreaks of pandemic flu and a potential second series of infections.

With the help of enacted television feeds and charts showing the effects of the pandemic, leaders saw the effect of their decisions -- not just in education, but in health care, economics and politics.

For Andrew Lawless of the health services department, Decision Theater is a "decision dashboard," which he says gave him and other participants the opportunity to evaluate complex issues associated with the influenza pandemic.

"The mathematical models and multimedia elements provided a greater degree of realism and gave participants the opportunity to see the results of their decisions," says Lawless, section chief for education and exercise in the Bureau of Public Health Emergency Preparedness. His department designs and conducts exercises with a variety of agencies.

"Models and simulations can be useful for any industry. As a follow up to any exercise, it is imperative to fix the gaps identified during the exercise and improve response plans," he says.

While the pandemic flu scenario was a tabletop exercise inside Decision Theater, the bombing exercise —the Coyote Crisis Campaign — took place outside on campus March 9–13. Led by the university's assistant police chief, Allen Clark, who was also the acting commander, the role-playing drills included first-response teams, ambulances and actors who faked injuries requiring triage.

Hospitals and fire departments, the Arizona Department of Public Safety, the FBI as well as staged and real media participated. A tabletop exercise and review completed the project on Friday.

"One of the most exciting projects at DT is understanding the communication and technology needs for Coyote Crisis and related emergency/crisis response situations," says Vanessa Escobar, a master's degree student in the ASU School of Earth and Space Exploration. "DT is developing visualization and communication tools that will track important data during emergencies similar to Coyote Crisis. The theater is incredibly useful for bridging gaps in science, policy and communication."

Escobar has used the Decision Theater for WaterSim, a regional scale, surface water, climate change and population growth model developed by Lant to explore the question: How do the stresses of climate and population impact groundwater and surface water?

Discovery Theater also has been used to investigate density changes at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport in the East Valley, with officials trying to figure out how noise levels from planes and buses affect residential areas. The Arizona School District Redistricting Commission used the theater to figure out how unifying Arizona school districts could better the educational system, making it more competitive worldwide.

"The tabletop is an informational exercise, but we know that in situations such as hurricanes and disasters, information is becoming more critical," Lant, the Decision Theater research director, says. "We can help people take advantage of the technologies that are around them to figure out what's going on and act appropriately."

For more information, see www.decisiontheater.org.